Trump Says Iran War Will End, US Gas Could Fall Below $2 After Midterms

At a Glance

For Korean investors, what matters most is not the direction of the alleged oil price plunge but the fact that no evidence has yet been presented to support that forecast. According to Yonhap News Agency, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at Joint Base Andrews near Washington, D.C., on September 9, 2026, that the Iran war would end after the U.S. midterm elections and that oil prices would plunge as well.

He made the remarks before departing for Dallas, Texas, site of the Republican Party's midterm election convention. The core of his comments was a political forecast tying both the end of the Iran war and the oil price drop to the period after the midterms.

War's End and Oil's Plunge, Tied to a Single Timeline

According to Yonhap, Trump said he believes the war will end shortly after the election concludes, suggesting Iran cannot hold out much longer. He then claimed oil prices would plunge right after the midterms. While he placed the war's end and the oil price drop at the same point in time, no specific evidence linking the two outcomes has been confirmed.

His forecast for U.S. gasoline prices was more specific. According to Yonhap, Trump predicted that U.S. gas prices would fall below $2 per gallon after the midterms. However, he also added that the drop in gas prices could take a bit longer than the midterms themselves — which is why it is difficult to conclude that the timing of the oil price plunge and the gasoline price target are entirely the same.

What the Market Should Separate: Confirmed Facts vs. Unverified Claims

• Confirmed fact: On September 9, 2026, President Trump shared his forecast for the end of the Iran war and a plunge in oil prices with reporters.
• Price forecast cited: According to Yonhap, U.S. gasoline prices were cited as expected to fall below $2 per gallon after the midterms.
• Unverified: The actual timing of the Iran war's end, whether oil prices actually plunge, and whether U.S. gasoline prices reach the target level all remain unknown.
• Limits of the available information: The exact date of the U.S. midterm elections and the specific basis for Trump's forecast are also absent from the available material.

According to Yonhap, what can currently be confirmed is limited to the president's remarks and the forecast figures — not the actual outcomes. If the war continues even after the midterms, interpretations premised on an oil price plunge would weaken, and whether U.S. gasoline prices actually fall below $2 per gallon would need to be verified separately.

Three Checkpoints for Korean Investors to Watch

• The war's actual status: Whether the Iran war has actually ended after the midterms is the first thing to verify. If the timing is off, the very starting point of this forecast fails to hold.
• The direction of oil prices: It must be determined whether the plunge Trump described actually materializes in price movements. The available fact sheet contains no current oil price or decline figure, so the threshold for what counts as a "plunge" cannot be calculated.
• U.S. gasoline prices: The under-$2-per-gallon figure reported by Yonhap is a forecast. If actual prices fall below this level, it would confirm whether the numerical forecast materialized, but no timeline for reaching it has been given.

The available material provides no basis for linking specific listed companies — such as refiners or airlines — to beneficiary or losing stock status. Determining the earnings or share price direction of related stocks (tickers) based on these remarks alone therefore goes beyond what the fact sheet supports.

Actual Outcomes Matter More Than the Remarks

The optimistic scenario is one in which, as Trump claims, the Iran war ends right after the midterms and oil prices plunge. If U.S. gasoline prices then fall below $2 per gallon as well, the outcomes contained in his remarks would be confirmed one by one.

The opposite condition is equally clear. If the war does not end or oil prices do not plunge, this forecast will not become reality. Since the Yonhap report alone provides no basis for judging which scenario is more likely, investors should verify the war's status, oil prices, and U.S. gasoline prices separately after the midterms.

Frequently Asked Questions

When exactly are the U.S. midterm elections?

The fact sheet provided does not include the exact date of the U.S. midterm elections. This article therefore does not estimate or add a date.

Did Trump disclose the basis for the oil price plunge?

According to Yonhap, Trump forecast the war's end on the grounds that Iran cannot hold out much longer. However, no specific evidence was confirmed for the forecasts that oil prices would plunge or that U.S. gasoline prices would fall below $2 per gallon.

Can this statement be used to identify which stocks will benefit?

The available material shows no relationship between any specific listed company and this statement. No company-level revenue, cost, or earnings impact is presented, so no direct beneficiary or losing stock (ticker) can be identified.

This article is automatically summarized and analyzed content based on the original news report. Read original (Hankyoreh)