Key Takeaways
At a forum hosted by the Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry, SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won made the case for holding SK Hynix shares long term, saying investors should "just hold on and do nothing." Citing an outlook for continued growth in memory demand, he used the metaphor that "AI is still just a 4-year-old baby" to underscore that the industry remains in its early stages. But the chairman's remarks amount to no more than a psychological support level — the stock's actual direction will ultimately be validated by HBM supply contracts and utilization/yield indicators.
What Happened
At the forum, Chairman Chey characterized SK Hynix's share-price trajectory as an "uptrend," urging investors not to be shaken by short-term swings and instead to hold their positions over time. His reasoning rests on a structural increase in memory semiconductor demand — as long as AI infrastructure buildout continues, he argues, there is no reason for DRAM and NAND demand to decline.
What stands out is the metaphor that "AI is still just a 4-year-old baby." If the starting point for generative AI's mainstream adoption is set at late 2022, that would put the industry in only its third or fourth year. If this assessment holds, the current HBM rally represents the start of a cycle rather than its end. The catch is that the responsibility for verifying this diagnosis ultimately falls on individual retail investors.
Background and Context
SK Hynix, leveraging its supply relationship with Nvidia in the HBM (high-bandwidth memory) market, was the first among memory makers to lead a profit rebound. It is unusual for a group chairman to publicly recommend long-term holding, and the remark can also be read as an attempt to address the market's learned fear of a memory down-cycle — a fear rooted in the sector's swing to losses in 2022-2023. Optimism voiced at the peak of a cyclical industry always splits into two possibilities: either the cycle has genuinely undergone a structural shift, or this is simply the familiar refrain heard near every peak.
Impact on the Market and Related Stocks
- SK Hynix: The chairman's remarks are not themselves a catalyst that moves the share price, but they can help soothe market sentiment and slow retail investors' exit amid short-term volatility. The stock's actual path will hinge on the upcoming HBM4 supply negotiations and the pace of capex execution.
- Samsung Electronics: As a latecomer in HBM, its market-share gap with SK Hynix could narrow or widen depending on the progress of its Nvidia quality certification. The stronger the narrative of SK Hynix's dominance becomes, the further expectations for a rebound in Samsung's memory division get pushed back.
- Hanmi Semiconductor: A back-end equipment stock with the greatest earnings leverage during periods when bonding-equipment orders rise in tandem with SK Hynix's HBM capacity expansion.
- Memory equipment and materials value chain: In phases when utilization rates rise, order intake at related parts/materials/equipment suppliers tends to respond first. If demand growth continues as Chairman Chey suggests, this is where the earliest confirming signal would appear.
Investor Checkpoints
- Check whether the HBM revenue share and guidance disclosed at next quarter's earnings release actually expand versus the prior quarter.
- Monitor next-generation HBM4 order volumes and qualification timing from major customers such as Nvidia.
- Distinguish whether SK Hynix's capex expansion plans and actual utilization rates rise together, or whether capacity expansion is simply running ahead on its own.
- Cross-check memory spot and contract price trends to see whether the "uptrend" narrative is actually being reflected in real prices.
Outlook
The optimistic scenario is one in which, as Chairman Chey diagnoses, AI infrastructure investment continues for years and memory demand rises on a sustained structural uptrend. In that case, HBM would shift in character from a cyclical item to an essential good, and a re-rating of SK Hynix's valuation could follow. Conversely, if AI data-center investment enters a correction phase sooner than expected, or if Samsung Electronics and Micron catch up in HBM competitiveness faster than anticipated, today's optimism could boomerang into a valuation burden. "Just hold on and do nothing" is the chairman's conviction — not an earnings report. That conviction will face its numerical test when next quarter's HBM shipment volumes are disclosed.
SK Hynix by the Real-Time Numbers
SK Hynix's most recent closing price was 1,842,000 won (-11.53% versus the previous day), and the composite signal — combining foreign-investor/institutional-investor order flow with news and momentum — reads 🔴 Caution. With foreign investors, institutional investors, and momentum all turning negative, caution is warranted right now.
- ▼ Twin-side selling — Foreign investors −873.4 billion won and institutional investors −1.164 trillion won, selling in tandem
- ▼ Trend alignment — Short- and medium-term downward alignment (day -11.5% · 1 week -15.7% · 1 month -26.9%)
- ▲ News flow — 4 positive catalysts vs. 2 negative catalysts — positive catalysts prevail
Recent related news skews favorable, with 4 positive catalysts versus 2 negative catalysts.
※ Price and foreign/institutional order-flow data are provided by Korea Investment & Securities (KIS) and are current as of publication time.
This article is automatically summarized and analyzed content based on the original news report. View Original (Maeil Business Newspaper – Securities)
