KOSPI Falls 11.71%; NH Sees 5,000–6,000 Range This Week

What the KOSPI’s 11.71% Drop Means for Investors

The KOSPI fell 11.71% last week, while the KOSDAQ declined 11.06%. The significance of this market move, as reported by Asia Economy Securities, is not that investors should assume a rebound. Rather, they should distinguish between the confirmed sharp drop (plunge) and a recovery that has yet to materialize.

The KOSPI fell below 5,000 intraday on the 6th. Although NH Investment & Securities projected a range of 5,000–6,000 for this week, this is a forecast range, not the actual high and low. Investors must first distinguish between the decline already seen in the market and the potential volatility created by upcoming data releases.

NH Investment & Securities’ 5,000–6,000 Range Is Not a Target

A forecast range indicates where an index is expected to trade over a given period. NH Investment & Securities’ projection of 5,000–6,000 for the KOSPI this week does not mean a rebound will occur or that the decline is over. The actual weekly high and low remain unknown.

Last week’s 11.71% decline in the KOSPI and 11.06% drop in the KOSDAQ are confirmed figures. By contrast, whether the KOSPI will rebound this week and where it will set its high and low remain uncertain. Treating forecast figures as actual outcomes undermines the analysis from the outset.

KOSPI and KOSDAQ: Different Benchmarks Amid the Same Sharp Drop

Both indexes fell last week, but the available data do not allow the declines to be broken down by individual industry sector or stock (ticker), supply-demand (order flow), or earnings impact. There is therefore no basis for directly linking the KOSPI and KOSDAQ declines to changes in any specific company’s profit or loss. For now, only index-level price movements have been confirmed.

Kim Min-kyu, an analyst at KB Securities, said, “A pattern of repeated sharp gain (surge) and sharp drop (plunge) will be unavoidable for the time being.” Under this assessment, investors should review scheduled economic indicators and earnings releases one by one rather than focus on a single-day rebound. If the sharp gain (surge) continues, additional data will be needed to determine whether it signals a trend reversal or a short-term move. If the sharp drop (plunge) continues, the index’s position within the forecast range will provide new information.

CoreWeave and Applied Materials Open a Key Monitoring Window

On the corporate calendar, CoreWeave is scheduled to report earnings on the 10th, followed by Applied Materials on the 12th. Lee Kyung-min, an analyst at Daishin Securities, said, “CoreWeave’s third-quarter earnings release will be a major inflection point for assessing whether AI investment sentiment is recovering.” As the results have not yet been released, no conclusion can be drawn about a recovery.

In South Korea, LG, NAVER, Mirae Asset Securities, and Samsung Life Insurance are scheduled to report third-quarter earnings on the 12th. The available information includes neither earnings forecasts nor actual results for these companies. Assessments of individual stocks (tickers) should be recalibrated based on the reported earnings themselves, not pre-release expectations.

Economic Calendar That Could Shape the KOSPI’s Direction

• 9th: China is scheduled to release its October Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. The figures have not yet been confirmed.
• 10th: The U.S. October Consumer Price Index and China’s October export data are due. CoreWeave is also scheduled to report earnings that day.
• 11th: South Korea is scheduled to release export data for November 1–10.
• 13th: The U.S. November Producer Price Index is scheduled for release.

These events are all upcoming checkpoints, not outcomes. With neither the economic data nor corporate earnings figures available yet, the market’s reaction in either direction cannot be determined. If the KOSPI recovers above 5,000 around each release, it would confirm a return above the level after the intraday breach. If it remains below 5,000, investors will need to reassess the gap between the forecast range and actual market performance.

Three Categories for This Week’s Investment Decisions

• Confirmed facts: The KOSPI fell 11.71% and the KOSDAQ declined 11.06% last week, while the KOSPI dropped below 5,000 intraday on the 6th.
• Institutional investors’ outlook: NH Investment & Securities projected a KOSPI range of 5,000–6,000 for this week.
• What remains unknown: Whether the KOSPI will actually rebound, its weekly high and low, and the figures from scheduled economic data and corporate earnings releases.

In the optimistic scenario, the KOSPI recovers above 5,000 and maintains its recovery after the scheduled releases. In the opposing scenario, the index falls below 5,000 again or continues to experience sharp gain (surge) and sharp drop (plunge) around the releases. Which scenario materializes will be determined not by the forecast language, but by the index’s actual path and the data released from the 9th through the 13th.

This article was automatically summarized and analyzed based on the original news report. View Original Article (Asia Economy Securities)