Core PCE Price Index (YoY)
Thu · Jul 30 · 8:30 AM ET
Release history
| Period | Actual | Prior | S&P that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 3.4% | 3.3% | +0.3% |
| Apr 2026 | 3.3% | 3.3% | +0.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 3.3% | 3% | +0.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 3% | 3.1% | +0.5% |
| Jan 2026 | 3.1% | 3% | +0.2% |
| Dec 2025 | 3% | 2.8% | -0.5% |
| Nov 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% | +0.2% |
| Oct 2025 | 2.8% | 2.8% | +0.3% |
“S&P that day” = S&P 500 (SPY) close-to-close move on the release date — a proxy for the market’s reaction.
What is Core PCE Price Index?
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy) is released monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It tracks the prices Americans actually pay, adjusting for changes in spending behavior.
Why it moves markets
This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the number their 2% target officially refers to. As a result it carries outsized weight in rate decisions, so surprises move Treasuries, the dollar and equities sharply.
How to read it
Compare the YoY rate to the Fed’s 2% goal and to the consensus. A reading drifting back toward 2% supports rate cuts (bullish for stocks); sticky or rising Core PCE hardens the "higher for longer" case.
Upcoming releases
Times in U.S. Eastern (ET). Economic data from official sources (FRED); schedules and AI estimates may change. For information only — not investment advice.