Unemployment Rate
Fri · Oct 2 · 8:30 AM ET
Rate likely ticks toward 4.3% as labor supply growth outpaces hiring; a jump above this would unnerve equity markets.
The forecast figure is an AI estimate from past readings — not a market consensus.
Release history
| Period | Actual | Prior | S&P that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2026 | 4.1% | 4.1% | +1.4% |
| Jul 2026 | 4.1% | 4.2% | -0.1% |
| Jun 2026 | 4.2% | 4.3% | +0.3% |
| May 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.3% |
| Apr 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | +0.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 4.3% | 4.4% | +0.1% |
| Feb 2026 | 4.4% | 4.3% | +0.5% |
| Jan 2026 | 4.3% | 4.4% | +0.2% |
“S&P that day” = S&P 500 (SPY) close-to-close move on the release date — a proxy for the market’s reaction.
What is Unemployment Rate?
The Unemployment Rate, from the same monthly BLS report as payrolls, is the share of the labor force that is jobless and actively looking for work.
Why it moves markets
It is half of the Fed’s dual mandate (maximum employment and stable prices). A rising rate signals a cooling economy and can pull the Fed toward cuts; a very low rate suggests a tight labor market that may keep wages and inflation elevated.
How to read it
Read it together with payrolls. A rise driven by more people entering the workforce is healthier than one driven by layoffs. The "Sahm rule" flags recessions when the rate climbs ~0.5pt off its lows.
Upcoming releases
Times in U.S. Eastern (ET). Economic data from official sources (FRED); schedules and AI estimates may change. For information only — not investment advice.