Nonfarm Payrolls
Fri · Sep 4 · 8:30 AM ET
After a negative prior print, payrolls likely stay weak but moderate; another soft reading would raise recession and Fed-cut odds.
The forecast figure is an AI estimate from past readings — not a market consensus.
Release history
| Period | Actual | Prior | S&P that day |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2026 | -23K | 20K | -0.1% |
| Jun 2026 | 20K | 63K | +0.3% |
| May 2026 | 63K | 148K | +0.3% |
| Apr 2026 | 148K | 214K | +0.8% |
| Mar 2026 | 214K | -156K | +0.1% |
| Feb 2026 | -156K | 160K | +0.5% |
| Jan 2026 | 160K | -17K | +0.2% |
| Dec 2025 | -17K | 41K | -0.5% |
“S&P that day” = S&P 500 (SPY) close-to-close move on the release date — a proxy for the market’s reaction.
What is Nonfarm Payrolls?
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), part of the BLS Employment Situation report released on the first Friday of each month, counts the net number of jobs added or lost across the economy excluding farms, released alongside the unemployment rate and wage growth.
Why it moves markets
It is the single most-watched economic release. A hot labor market can fuel inflation and keep the Fed tight; rapid cooling raises recession risk. Payrolls routinely move stocks, bonds and the dollar within seconds of release.
How to read it
Compare the headline jobs number (in thousands) to the forecast, but also check wage growth (average hourly earnings) and prior-month revisions. A strong beat with hot wages is inflationary; a big miss can trigger growth fears or rate-cut hopes.
Upcoming releases
Times in U.S. Eastern (ET). Economic data from official sources (FRED); schedules and AI estimates may change. For information only — not investment advice.